AUD/USD rebounds ahead of RBA interest rate decision

The AUD/USD price has rebounded as the market reflects on the ongoing recovery of the global economy. It has risen to0.7630, which is 1.30% above the lowest level this week.

AUD/USD price action

Global recovery

The Australian dollar has bounced back as investors reflect on the manufacturing PMI numbers released yesterday. According to Markit and JP Morgan, the global manufacturing PMI rallied to a 121-month high of 55 as demand rose.

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In Australia, data by the Australia Industry Group (AIG) showed that the PMI rose from 58.8 in February to 59.9 in March. Similarly, data by Markit showed that the PMI rose to 56.9, a sign that the sector is doing well. 

Further, in China, the Caixin manufacturing PMI declined slightly to 50.6 from the previous 50.9. A PMI reading above 50 is usually a sign that a sector is recovering. 

These numbers are important for the AUD/USD price because of Australia’s role in the row material industry. It is a leading exporter of key materials like iron ore, coal, and nickel that are used in the sector.

Further, recent numbers show that the country’s central bank could be forced to hike rates earlier than expected. Housing prices have soared in key areas like Sydney and Melbourne while Australian government bonds have also rallied. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will publish its interest rate decision on Tuesday next week.

The AUD/USD is also rising ahead of the latest US non-farm payroll (NFP) numbers and the falling US bond yields. Economists expect data by the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) to show that the economy added more than 545,000 jobs in March. 

Furthermore, more states like New York and California have started to reopen. Also, they see the unemployment rate falling below 6.0% for the first time since the pandemic started. Meanwhile, US Treasuries have declined slightly even after Biden announced his $2.3 trillion infrastructure project.

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AUD/USD technical forecast

AUD/USD price action

The AUD/USD pair has risen in the past three days. On the three-hour chart, the price has moved above the important resistance level at 0.7620, which formed an important double-bottom between March 5 and 9. The price has also risen above the 15-day and 25-day weighted moving averages and is slightly below the important resistance at 0.7663. 

Therefore, the pair may keep rising as bulls target this resistance level. You can trade the dynamics on the AUD/USD using regulated forex and CFD broker.

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