Twitter, Inc. (NYSE: TWTR) shares have weakened from their record highs above $80 registered in February 2021, and the current price stands around $57. The risk of further decline is still not over, and if the U.S. stock market enters a more significant correction phase, the share price could be at much lower levels.
Fundamental analysis: Twitter unveiled a long-awaited subscription service “Twitter Blue”
Twitter shares continue to trade below the $60 resistance level in the first trading week of June even though the company reported better than expected first-quarter results in April. Total revenue has increased by 28.8% Y/Y to $1.04 billion, while the GAAP EPS was $0.08 (beats by $0.10).
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Twitter finished the first quarter with 199 million monetizable daily active users (mDAU), and the company began the second quarter in a strong position. The company expects revenue to be between $980 million and $1.08 billion in the second quarter, while GAAP operating loss should be between $170 million and $120 million for the same period.
The positive news is that Twitter unveiled a long-awaited subscription service “Twitter Blue”, the service is launched currently in Canada and Australia and will come to the U.S. later this year at $2.99/month.
“Now you can review and revise your Tweet before it’s visible to your followers on Twitter! Subscribers can also organize bookmarked tweets into folders and turn long threads into an easy-to-read long-form text,” Twitter reported.
The company also unveiled recently a Tip Jar option, a way to send payments to other accounts that are integrated into the application experience. In this way, users are able to tip accounts using their preferred payment service, but only limited accounts can receive tips so far (only creators, journalists, experts, and nonprofits).
Last month, ARK Investment Management announced that It bought 1,007,889 shares of Twitter as it sees this company well-positioned for success in 2021. Twitter is in a good position to grow its business, but with a $45.51 billion market capitalization, this stock is not undervalued, and the risk/reward ratio is not good enough for “value” investors.
Twitter trades at more than eighty times 2020 EBITDA, the book value per share is less than $10, the company has never declared or paid cash dividends, and there are better long-term investment opportunities at the moment.
Technical analysis: $50 represents a very strong support level
If the price jumps above $65, it would be a signal to trade shares, and the next target could be around $70. Rising above $70 supports the continuation of the bullish trend for Twitter shares, but if the price falls below $500, it would be a strong “sell” signal.
Twitter is in a good position to grow its business, but this stock is not undervalued, and there are better long-term investment opportunities at the moment. The current risk/reward ratio is not good enough for “value” investors, and if the price falls below $50 support, the next target could be around $40.
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